Credit Suisse: China’s economic growth rate will increase to 7.1% in 2021, optimistic about consumption, automobiles and technology
Shanghai Securities News China Securities News (Reporter Shi Na) Credit Suisse predicted at the 2021 China Market Outlook online media conference held on January 18 that in the first quarter of 2021, China’s economy will still maintain a strong momentum, and consumption is expected to become the future The main driver of China’s economic growth for several years. Combined with the prospect of continued economic recovery in 2021 and the expectation of policy exit, Credit Suisse believes that the “post-cycle” stage of recovery will benefit traditional sectors, and is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the technology industry.
The Credit Suisse economic analysis team has raised China’s economic growth forecast for 2021 from 5.6% to 7.1%. It is expected that infrastructure investment will continue to improve this year, and real estate investment may be under pressure. Credit Suisse believes that consumption will be the main driver of China’s economic growth in the next few years. Driven by economic recovery and the return of consumer behavior to normal after vaccination, consumer discretionary and service industries are expected to usher in a V-shaped rebound; An online consumption habit may prompt online retail to start accelerating growth in 2021; community group buying will be a major disruptor in the industry, while traditional e-commerce and supermarkets may still be important channels.
Wang Bin, Co-Head of Automotive Industry Research at Credit Suisse Asia Pacific, predicts that, benefiting from the cyclical demand recovery and the low base effect caused by the epidemic, the growth rate of wholesale passenger vehicle sales is expected to reach double digits in 2021, and demand may be unexpectedly better than expected. Margins will improve due to restrained supply from automakers. Credit Suisse is also optimistic about the structural growth of smart car makers.
Wang Xiaoqiong, head of China’s technology industry research, expects a brighter outlook for the technology industry in 2021. Among them, smartphones will usher in a post-pandemic recovery in 2021, and the smartphone market will be reshaped; Apple’s supply chain will be vertically integrated, and the camera upgrade trend will remain unchanged; 5G infrastructure will continue to be deployed, but pricing pressure will continue; Maintaining double-digit growth, the 400G transformation will continue; the global semiconductor supply chain will remain tight, domestic substitution will continue to advance, and more semiconductor companies are expected to be listed on the A-share STAR Market; the digitalization trend will continue, and domestic substitution will promote IT services Strong demand for software-as-a-service (SaaS) migration.
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