The United States is still the world’s largest manufacturing power,

The second is not China!

On September 9, the “2020 China Internet Manufacturing Summit” with the theme of “New Manufacturing Era” was held in Xiamen. Nian Yong, former director of the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said that the United States has never given up manufacturing. The U.S. service sector accounted for 81 percent of the economy last year, but more than 60 percent of it served manufacturing. At present, China’s manufacturing industry still shows many deficiencies.

The following is a shorthand of Nian Yong’s speech, organized by the Chinese think tank:

Intelligent manufacturing is a very big topic, I will share with you some of my own knowledge. It stands to reason that today I am going to talk about manufacturing. Some people told me that I did not understand it. They said that you are also talking about manufacturing, and the topic and content are a bit low. What do I say is not LOW? Talking about big data, cloud computing, and blockchain is not LOW, but I said that you have misunderstood. The biggest misleading of our society at present is that the manufacturing industry is dead and the manufacturing industry is lagging behind. We need to talk about big data, cloud computing, and blockchain. , quantum computing and so on, only then can we keep up with the situation and keep pace with the times. This is the biggest problem in current society.

America has never given up on manufacturing

To talk about manufacturing is because the current manufacturing industry is still the foundation of our national economy, and it is the basic carrier of our science and technology. Where is a country’s scientific and technological level and economic strength reflected? The only sign is that the manufacturing industry is underdeveloped. This is something that no one of us has said now. I don’t want to say it, I don’t want to say it. I conclude that the development and progress of human beings are the development and progress of the manufacturing industry. People will say that I am extreme. I say that the difference between humans and animals is that humans can make tools. Now there is a saying that the United States is a service economy, a post-industrial society, and does not engage in manufacturing, while China’s manufacturing industry is very developed. Do you know what the specific situation in the United States is like? I will share my views, which may not necessarily be right, and let’s communicate together.

Last year, the proportion of the service industry in the United States was 81%, which proves that the United States is a post-industrial economy and an economy that does not require manufacturing. But many people don’t know that among the 81% of the US service industry, the US manufacturing industry was 2.36 trillion last year, accounting for 11% of the total economy, and the service industry was 81%. You don’t know what’s behind 81%, what’s behind it? More than 60% of the service industry in the United States is for the manufacturing industry, accounting for 48%, 49%, and 50% of the total US economy in recent years. What’s the meaning? In the United States, half of the productivity of manufacturing services is used, which means that half of the total economic output of the United States is for manufacturing services. Plus manufacturing itself exceeds 60%. In other words, it can be said that US manufacturing accounts for more than 60% of the US economy. Then the United States is a manufacturing country, and it is still a big manufacturing country. The United States has never given up manufacturing until today. The day before yesterday, Trump also said that the United States wants to become the world’s manufacturing superpower. The central meaning is to get rid of China’s dependence and the United States to become a superpower in the world’s manufacturing industry. In short, if we in China don’t have a clear understanding of this, and we fool around with new concepts every day, I estimate that China will pay a heavy price for this.

Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow of Smart Manufacturing

First, yesterday. Human history is the history in which science and technology continue to empower the manufacturing industry. We continue to invent new science and technology and apply them to the manufacturing industry to promote the development and progress of the manufacturing industry.

The reason why it is called intelligent manufacturing today is that intelligent manufacturing has not been proposed for a long time. It is a book “Intelligent Manufacturing” published by Professor White from the United States in 1988. It was first proposed in this book. It has only been 32 years since it was proposed. very short. In fact, when it comes to intelligent manufacturing, going back, it should be said that the first industrial revolution began. At that time, in 1776, Watt invented the steam engine. At that time, the manufacturing industry began to progress relatively quickly. Why is the Industrial Revolution the invention of the steam engine by Watt, and the advancement of power. People can be liberated without the need for people to pull it. It is the era of mechanization. At that time, we have already entered the modernization process of the manufacturing industry.

It has experienced the second industrial revolution. The second industrial revolution is marked by the invention of the electric motor by Faraday in 1821. Human beings have entered the era of electrification, and the era of electrification has reached a new level. Entering the third industrial revolution, starting with the invention of Electronic computing in 1946, we have entered the era of the third industrial revolution. The era of the third industrial revolution is still going on, and I don’t know how long it will last.

In this process, we experienced automation or digitization, and later experienced networking. In recent years, due to the emergence of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, etc., including artificial intelligence technology, the third industrial revolution is considered to be the The age of intelligence. In the past 200 years, since the first industrial revolution, developed countries have never given up manufacturing, and have always been in the leading position in manufacturing. In recent years, to promote the capability level and various aspects of the manufacturing industry, developed countries have proposed many strategies at the national level, and also proposed many support measures, including financial support. Their enterprises, especially large enterprises, have many strategic initiatives in promoting the intelligentization of manufacturing.

From a domestic perspective, over the past 40 years since our country’s reform and opening up, we have kept up with the pace of developed countries, learned from them, and grasped the global industry trend, especially the organic integration of new-generation information technology and traditional manufacturing technology. progress, and many achievements have been made, which are not listed one by one. Why this achievement? One reason is that we actively learn from others, and the other is the result of our own continuous efforts.

Second, today. Although we have made great achievements in the manufacturing industry in the past 30 years and developed into the world’s largest manufacturing system (total scale), there are also many problems in the manufacturing industry, and the gap between the developed countries is still very large. , in terms of technology, materials, and level ability, the gap between the high-end parts is still very large.

Of course, the time for real industrialization is still relatively short. In fact, it is only 40 years. In other words, what we have achieved now is that we have completed the nearly 300 years of industrialization in western developed countries in 30 to 40 years. . We have gone through one hundred years of the first industrial revolution, one hundred years of the second industrial revolution, and thirty or forty years before the third industrial revolution. In such a short period of time, we are catching up quickly. A lot is missing, a lot of links are missing.

Therefore, in summary, there are three aspects that are more prominent:

First, the industrial base is very weak. At present, the industrial foundation includes the foundation of research, the foundation of industrialization, the foundation of application, etc., which is far from developed countries. The most prominent one is basic research, which is very important for subsequent applications. Because of the objective reality that the industrialization time was short, many basic researches did not keep up, including the basic research of university research institutions and large enterprises. If basic research fails, there was a physicist named Henry Rowland in the United States more than 100 years ago. He gave a speech. He said that in order to apply science, science itself must succeed. If we stop the progress of science and only pay attention to the application of science , will soon degenerate into the Chinese. They have made little progress for generations, because he is only satisfied with scientific applications, but has never questioned the principles of what they do, and these principles constitute science. Today, more than 100 years later, how have we changed? I cannot answer this question. But the reality we see is our major basic theory, and the major original core technology is almost blank. Today, the key basic materials, advanced basic processes, and core basic components of 4G are heavily dependent on foreign countries.

At present, we can hardly produce high-end chips, intelligent industrial robots and other hardware in our country. Our original operating system and other key software also rely on imports. For example, for a drive motor, a small part of the drive motor is produced on a large scale in China, and no one in the world can compare it, but the high-speed precision bearings, electricity-resistant materials, and high-precision position and temperature sensors required for the manufacture of this motor, We can’t produce any of these electronic switches, IGBTs, and so on. Due to poor basic research, the underlying hardware and underlying software depend on others. This is the most fundamental and largest gap between our developed countries and the United States. It is because of our poor basic research.

The second shortcoming is that the industrial ecology is not going up. The entire industrial chain of the manufacturing industry is incomplete. This problem is very prominent, and some links are blank. Moreover, these important key infrastructures that we serve for intelligent manufacturing are still far away. For example, the industrial Internet and 5G discussed in the past two days, including the system of data resources, and the system of human resources are hardly perfect.

Third, the industrial environment needs to be improved urgently. I conclude that there are three deviations. One deviation is the result of not paying attention to the manufacturing process and manufacturing experience. This accumulation is very important, that is, I am very happy. I didn’t realize that Industry 1.0, 2.0, 3.0 to 4.0 should be taken step by step. Why? Because the process of industrialization can be shortened, it cannot be omitted. If any link is omitted, a heavy price will be paid in the future, and sooner or later, it will be made up. If you want to skip, there will be a price to pay in the future, and the price is very painful. So the first bias is cognitive bias. Second, guidance deviation. Many guidance strategies are unsystematic, incomplete, and fragmented. How to form a consensus and form a joint force in this situation. The third deviation is the implementation deviation. In the process of promoting intelligent manufacturing or promoting intelligent manufacturing, there is no dominant force, each acting in its own way, a piece of sand is scattered, and the investment of capital, manpower and material resources is wasted.

This is the situation we face today, and it is so dire.

Third, tomorrow. What are you facing tomorrow? In fact, it is very clear that what shortcomings and bottlenecks are facing today, that is the direction we will work towards tomorrow. Saying so,

The first is to consolidate the foundation. Of course, there are problems with universities, research institutions, and enterprises. These foundations must be consolidated. Without this foundation, it is impossible to fly. It means that the whole society must have this awareness. Universities play a vital role in basic research. There are two engines for the economic take-off of the United States. One is the west of the United States in the San Francisco Bay Area in California, and the other is in the east of the United States, in Boston, Massachusetts. Why does this happen? Two are particularly active, with innovative achievements emerging one after another. There is the University of California in the west, and there are a series of famous universities such as Stanford University. There are Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, etc. in the eastern region. These universities have strong research strength, long-term accumulation, and a steady stream of students coming in and out, which is to provide a steady stream of elite talents from generation to generation. These two places in the United States have formed quite developed industries around universities. Inventions and creations in universities provide a series of industrialized manufacturing industries. There is also financial support for the manufacturing system.

At the same time, this set of developed countries’ manufacturing system and developed financial industry system ensures that the results of basic research from universities in the United States can be small-scale, medium-scale, industrialized, and then enlarged, and finally become a large industry. Factories can be placed not in the United States, but in China and Europe. However, its original results are in his university, and these professors and laboratory directors lead teachers and students to continue research around a certain sub-field, a small field. And the baton has been taken over from previous generations of laboratory directors.

Once there was a Chinese kid who worked there, I asked him what you do, and he did research and came here for a long time. I said I wanted to know what your study and living conditions were like for half a year? He said that I spent half the year in the laboratory. I would go to the laboratory when I wake up in the morning and go back to the laboratory at eleven or twelve in the evening. He said that it was not the teacher who asked him to be like this. From the laboratory director to a group of young teachers to students, it was all in this state, and it was all voluntary. Every day, the state was very exciting and meaningful. I say this is the only reason America is strong, and whoever can do something is the biggest and strongest.

Second, improve the ecology. One is to improve the intelligent manufacturing industry chain and make up for the shortcomings. One is to promote the infrastructure construction of intelligent manufacturing, including industrial Internet and 5G. One is the construction of the talent system. No one can do anything.

Third, improve the environment. First, raise awareness. Second, to strengthen guidance, it is necessary to break the fragmentation of guidance strategies. I once took the lead in formulating a “Three-Year Action Plan for Enhancing Manufacturing Core Technologies”, once every three years, why formulate this? We just want to focus on a few key areas, and concentrate all kinds of resources, funds, and talents in this field, so that we can make breakthroughs in this field as soon as possible. It has now been implemented to the second round, supporting a large number of projects, and the effect is very good. Third, promote implementation. We talk about intelligent manufacturing and the other focus is manufacturing. You can’t imagine that your manufacturing is not good. You can add a computer and software on it. This is not the case. Manufacturing needs to accumulate and explore. It has a lot of tacit knowledge, not three You can learn it in two days. If you are not familiar with the manufacturing process, manufacturing procedure, manufacturing process, and manufacturing experience, then no amount of data behind it will be useful, and you have no idea what is behind the data.

In this sense, the advancement of intelligent manufacturing may require a manufacturing giant to lead and dominate. Without it, it will be difficult to do this. Only manufacturing giants understand the manufacturing industry, and only then can they understand the manufacturing process, manufacturing procedures and master the core technology of manufacturing. Without mastering this, you will not be able to lead if you want to. The most typical example in the world is GE. With hundreds of years of manufacturing experience, it has a deeper understanding of manufacturing processes and manufacturing fields than any other company. At the same time, there is a huge strength to improve the level of information technology, and it has mastered a lot of the key to information technology. In this way, the combination of the two parties may lead the development of intelligent manufacturing. This means that large manufacturing companies have to take on historical responsibilities.